One of Montauk’s treasured landmarks is up for sale and being represented by Stacey Barnds of Town & Country Real Estate.   

Montauk has a few treasured landmarks and Salivars Restaurant and Bar has always been considered one of them.  This business has thrived as a family owned and operated establishment for over 54 years as a community hub for locals and tourists combined.  It is located in the heart of the Montauk docks and has been a fixture there since the mid 1940’s.  Known well as the only place in Montauk where you can get a drink and food 24 hours a day, this spot is a breakfast, lunch and dinner favorite for all.  A Montauk institution, this is a one-of-a kind offering with ample on-site parking, 53 seat indoor dining, 85 seat patio overlooking the water and six dock slips that can accommodate up to a 65 foot size boat.  Endless potential for a future business owner who wants to be a part of the fabric and history of Montauk.  

If you can’t see the newsletter, or would like to view it online, use this link If you have received this newsletter indirectly and would like to be added to our weekly distribution list, use this link
Eve Robin Jarrett
MANAGING DIRECTOR
Senior Mortgage Consultant
Manhattan Mortgage
Office: 631-324-1555 x 25
Blackberry: 631-697-3366
e-Fax: 631-514-3654
Email: EJarrett@manhattanmortgage.com

For the week of Jul 05, 2010 // Vol. 8, Issue 27
In This Issue

Independence Day

I hope you and your family enjoyed the Independence Day holiday weekend. And, I sincerely hope you have been enjoying your complimentary subscription to the MORTGAGE MARKET GUIDE WEEKLY.

Due to the July 4th holiday, the next full issue will arrive on Monday, July 12. In the meantime, check out the article below about protecting yourself and your family from the sun as you celebrate the summer.

The Mortgage Market Guide View…

Protecting Yourself from the Sun

Walk along a beach or spend a day at the pool and it will quickly become evident that a “golden tan” is often considered an outward indicator of one’s overall health or fitness. Medically speaking, though, these are very dangerous sentiments – especially when you consider the potential ramifications of unprotected exposure to the sun.

THE FACTS?

According to the CDC, exposure to ultraviolet (UV) rays is the biggest factor in developing skin cancer. And, cases of skin cancer have increased at a rate of roughly 3% every year, making it the most common type of cancer in the United States.

Malignant melanoma, the most serious form of skin cancer, is also the most common type of cancer for women between the ages of 25 and 29. Even though it is curable if caught early, when left unattended it can spread to other organs, most commonly the lungs and the liver.

THE FIX?

The very best thing you can do to protect yourself from the sun is to avoid intentional sunbathing altogether. However, for those who work in the sun, enjoy outdoor sports, or insist on obtaining a tan, there are a few things you can do to help your cause.

First, invest in a quality sunscreen. The best brands contain a UVA blocking ingredient known as avobenzone or Parsol 1789. Look for products with an SPF of at least 15 for the body, and 30 for the face. The bottom line is the more SPF the better, especially for fairer-skinned people. Apply sunscreen 20-30 minutes before any activity in the sun – allowing time for absorption – and reapply it every two hours or more frequently if you are swimming or partaking in strenuous activities.

Make sure you wear sunglasses with UV protection, since the rays have been linked to everything from cataracts to skin cancer of the eyelids. Hats and protective summer-weight clothing are also a must. For headwear, a wide-brimmed hat works much better than a baseball hat.

Also, make sure you take breaks (especially during mid-day) out of the sun. Seeking refuge in the shade for 5 to 10 minutes every hour helps maintain skin temperature.

Finally, do NOT bring an infant into the sun. Infants under six months are NOT supposed to wear sunscreen at all, which means they are even more susceptible to sun damage.

FINAL THOUGHTS ON SKIN?

It is believed that roughly 80% of skin change associated with aging is actually due to sun exposure. To help protect your skin, practice the tips above. In addition, perform regular self-checks for abnormal moles and freckles – and see a doctor at least once a year so he or she can do the same.

For more information, visit www.skincancer.org or www.cdc.gov/cancer/skin.

——————————————————————————–

Economic Calendar for the Week of July 05 – July 09
Date ET Economic Report For Estimate Actual Prior Impact
Tue. July 06 10:00 ISM Services Index Jun 55.5 55.4 Moderate
Wed. July 07 10:30 Crude Inventories 7/3 NA -1.90M Moderate
Thu. July 08 08:30 Jobless Claims (Initial) 7/3 NA 472K Moderate

The material contained in this newsletter is provided by a third party to real estate, financial services and other professionals only for their use and the use of their clients. The material provided is for informational and educational purposes only and should not be construed as investment and/or mortgage advice. Although the material is deemed to be accurate and reliable, we do not make any representations as to its accuracy or completeness and as a result, there is no guarantee it is not without errors.

As your trusted advisor, I am sending you the Manhattan Mortgage Company Mortgage Weekly Update because I am committed to keeping you updated on the economic events that impact interest rates and how they may affect you.

In the unlikely event that you no longer wish to receive these valuable market updates, please USE THIS LINK or email: ejarrett@manhattanmortgage.com

If you prefer to send your removal request by mail the address is:

Eve Robin Jarrett
Manhattan Mortgage
75 Main Street, 2nd Floor
East Hampton, NY 11937
The Manhattan Mortgage Company is the copyright owner or licensee of the content and/or information in this email, unless otherwise indicated. The Manhattan Mortgage Company does not grant to you a license to any content, features or materials in this email. You may not distribute, download, or save a copy of any of the content or screens except as otherwise provided in our Terms and Conditions of Membership, for any purpose.

you can’t see the newsletter, or would like to view it online, use this link If you have received this newsletter indirectly and would like to be added to our weekly distribution list, use this link
Eve Robin Jarrett
MANAGING DIRECTOR
Senior Mortgage Consultant
Manhattan Mortgage
Office: 631-324-1555 x 25
Blackberry: 631-697-3366
e-Fax: 631-514-3654
Email: EJarrett@manhattanmortgage.com

For the week of Jun 28, 2010 // Vol. 8, Issue 26
In This Issue

Last Week in Review: Washington was at it again, with big news from both Congress and the Fed. Learn what this means for you…and for home loan rates!

Forecast for the Week: Two juicy economic reports bookend the week, bringing highly anticipated news on inflation and the labor market.

View: Hitting the road for July 4th? Want to avoid a speeding ticket? Read on below.

Last Week in Review

What happens in Washington doesn’t stay in Washington! And there was a lot happening in Washington this past week, between the Fed’s two-day meeting and actions in Congress. So how will all of these happenings impact you…and home loan rates, which are near all-time lows? Read on for details.

Last week, the Fed decided to keep the Fed Funds Rate at 0.25%, and also reiterated in its Policy Statement that economic conditions warrant keeping the Fed Funds Rate low for an “extended period”. First, what is the Fed Funds Rate? It is the lending rate banks charge each other for the use of overnight funds, and it is used as a base rate that many other lending rates are based on, for consumer and business loans.

And second, why is the “extended period” language significant? The Fed has to time very carefully any action – or even hints of action – on raising the Fed Funds Rate, which they have held at the lowest levels in history for the last year and a half. If the Fed raises the Fed Funds Rate too soon, it could slow economic activity and cause a “double dip” recession. However, if the Fed waits too long to raise the Fed Funds Rate, inflation could result. Remember, inflation is the arch enemy of Bonds and home loan rates…and signs of inflation could definitely cause home loan rates to worsen from their current low levels.

Even though there have been more concerns expressed by various Fed members about inflation and the long term effects of keeping the Fed Funds Rate too low for too long, the economic data recently reported (such as the weak Jobs Report and other reports showing inflation is tame at present) as well as the ongoing issues in Europe helped the “extended period” language to survive through another Fed meeting. This is an important issue to keep watch on.

Congress was just as busy as the Fed last week. On Thursday, the Financial Reform Bill was finally reconciled between the House and Senate. The final draft includes a Consumer Financial Protection Agency, which will have the authority to police banks for mortgage lending and credit-card abuses. The bill will move to the President for his signature once both houses of Congress approve the final version.

However, Congress did not pass the extension of the Home Buyer Tax Credit. Note: This extension was only going to be for people who were under contract by the initial April 30th deadline, extending their June 30th closing deadline to September 30th. The extension was part of the larger Jobs Bill, which included State aid and an extension of unemployment benefits for people out of work more than six months – and would have added $33B to the deficit. Meanwhile, the National Association of Realtors is saying that up to 30% of homes that went under contract by the April 30th deadline of the Homebuyer Tax Credit will likely not close by the current June 30th deadline.

There was other housing news last week, as both New Home Sales and Existing Home Sales were well below expectations. While a decline in sales was expected after people were racing to qualify for the April 30th Tax Credit deadline, the numbers are still a bit of a disappointment.

However – home prices remain affordable, and home loan rates are far from disappointing at the moment…last week they reached all time low levels! If you or anyone you know would like to learn more about this exceptional opportunity, please don’t hesitate to call or email. Or forward this newsletter on to anyone you think may benefit and I’d be happy to consult with them free of charge.

The FASTEST WAY TO TAKE THE FUN OUT OF ANY ROADTRIP IS TO COME HOME WITH A SPEEDING TICKET. CHECK OUT THE MORTGAGE MARKET GUIDE VIEW BELOW TO LEARN MORE ABOUT AVOIDING SPEED TRAPS.

Forecast for the Week

There will be plenty happening this week, ahead of the Independence Day holiday. The week may start with a bang, as Monday’s Personal Income and Personal Spending Reports arrive, giving us a look at the Core Personal Consumption Expenditure (PCE) Index as well…which just happens to be the Fed’s favorite gauge of inflation. Rest assured the Fed will be watching this report very closely. Any hint that inflation is heating up could definitely impact the Fed’s decision on rates and the “extended period” language at future Fed meetings.

Thursday brings another Initial Jobless Claims Report. Initial Jobless Claims came in at 457,000 last week and Continuing Claims at 4.55 Million. In addition, an additional 4.73M people are claiming EUC (Emergency Unemployment Compensation) benefits. The continuing high level of unemployment claims is disturbing, but things will improve. Remember, job losses come in the thousands as companies endure sweeping layoffs, but individuals are hired back one at a time. And remember – since the Jobs Bill has not been passed, more people will start to drop off extended unemployment benefits – and rejoin the workforce as formally unemployed.

And there could be some real fireworks on Friday, as the Labor Department releases the Jobs Report for June. Last month’s Jobs Report showed 431,000 jobs created in May. While on the surface this seems positive, the number was below expectations and also was primarily made up of temporary census workers…who will once again join the ranks of the unemployed when the 2010 Census has been completed. The Unemployment Rate did drop from 9.9% to 9.7%, but overall May’s Jobs Report was disappointing.

Remember: Weak economic news normally causes money to flow out of Stocks and into Bonds, helping Bonds and home loan rates improve, while strong economic news normally has the opposite result.

As you can see in the chart below, home loan rates hit record low levels last week. I’ll be watching closely to see if this trend continues.

Chart: Fannie Mae 4.0% Mortgage Bond (Friday, June 25, 2010)

The Mortgage Market Guide View…

A Safe and Ticket-Free Fourth!

In just a few short days, drivers across the country will hit the road to celebrate the Fourth of July with friends and family. If you’re heading down the road this coming weekend, remember that it’s never a good idea to speed – both for safety and financial reasons. After all, an accident or ticket can ruin your holiday weekend.

So make sure you have plenty of time and that you plan the most effective route. And…you may even want to take a minute to find out if there are any speed traps on your route that you should know about. Thanks to the website speedtrap.org, you can easily read about speed traps in communities across the country.

Simply visit speedtrap.org and click on the state and then the cities that you’ll be driving through. You can even add a speed trap you know about, so others can benefit from your knowledge.

Whether you’re traveling a few miles or a few hundred, have a safe and ticket-free Fourth of July!

——————————————————————————–

Economic Calendar for the Week of June 28 – July 02
Date ET Economic Report For Estimate Actual Prior Impact
Mon. June 28 08:30 Personal Income May 0.5% 0.4% Moderate
Mon. June 28 08:30 Personal Spending May 0.1% 0.0% Moderate
Mon. June 28 08:30 Personal Consumption Expenditures and Core PCE May 0.1% 0.1% HIGH
Mon. June 28 08:30 Personal Consumption Expenditures and Core PCE YOY NA 1.2% HIGH
Tue. June 29 10:00 Consumer Confidence Jun 62.0 63.3 Moderate
Wed. June 30 10:30 Crude Inventories 6/26 NA 2.02M Moderate
Wed. June 30 09:45 Chicago PMI Jun 59.5 59.7 HIGH
Wed. June 30 08:15 ADP National Employment Report Jun 61K 55K HIGH
Thu. July 01 08:30 Jobless Claims (Initial) 6/26 458K 457K Moderate
Thu. July 01 10:00 ISM Index Jun 59.0 59.7 HIGH
Thu. July 01 10:00 Pending Home Sales May -10.5% 6.0% Moderate
Fri. July 02 01:00 Non-farm Payrolls Jun -100K 431K HIGH
Fri. July 02 01:00 Unemployment Rate Jun 9.8% 9.7% HIGH
Fri. July 02 01:00 Hourly Earnings Jun 0.1% 0.3% HIGH
Fri. July 02 01:00 Average Work Week Jun 34.2 34.2 HIGH

The material contained in this newsletter is provided by a third party to real estate, financial services and other professionals only for their use and the use of their clients. The material provided is for informational and educational purposes only and should not be construed as investment and/or mortgage advice. Although the material is deemed to be accurate and reliable, we do not make any representations as to its accuracy or completeness and as a result, there is no guarantee it is not without errors.

As your trusted advisor, I am sending you the Manhattan Mortgage Company Mortgage Weekly Update because I am committed to keeping you updated on the economic events that impact interest rates and how they may affect you.

In the unlikely event that you no longer wish to receive these valuable market updates, please USE THIS LINK or email: ejarrett@manhattanmortgage.com

If you prefer to send your removal request by mail the address is:

Eve Robin Jarrett
Manhattan Mortgage
75 Main Street, 2nd Floor
East Hampton, NY 11937
The Manhattan Mortgage Company is the copyright owner or licensee of the content and/or information in this email, unless otherwise indicated. The Manhattan Mortgage Company does not grant to you a license to any content, features or materials in this email. You may not distribute, download, or save a copy of any of the content or screens except as otherwise provided in our Terms and Conditions of Membership, for any purpose.

you can’t see the newsletter, or would like to view it online, use this link If you have received this newsletter indirectly and would like to be added to our weekly distribution list, use this link
Eve Robin Jarrett
MANAGING DIRECTOR
Senior Mortgage Consultant
Manhattan Mortgage
Office: 631-324-1555 x 25
Blackberry: 631-697-3366
e-Fax: 631-514-3654
Email: EJarrett@manhattanmortgage.com

For the week of Jun 28, 2010 // Vol. 8, Issue 26
In This Issue

Last Week in Review: Washington was at it again, with big news from both Congress and the Fed. Learn what this means for you…and for home loan rates!

Forecast for the Week: Two juicy economic reports bookend the week, bringing highly anticipated news on inflation and the labor market.

View: Hitting the road for July 4th? Want to avoid a speeding ticket? Read on below.

Last Week in Review

What happens in Washington doesn’t stay in Washington! And there was a lot happening in Washington this past week, between the Fed’s two-day meeting and actions in Congress. So how will all of these happenings impact you…and home loan rates, which are near all-time lows? Read on for details.

Last week, the Fed decided to keep the Fed Funds Rate at 0.25%, and also reiterated in its Policy Statement that economic conditions warrant keeping the Fed Funds Rate low for an “extended period”. First, what is the Fed Funds Rate? It is the lending rate banks charge each other for the use of overnight funds, and it is used as a base rate that many other lending rates are based on, for consumer and business loans.

And second, why is the “extended period” language significant? The Fed has to time very carefully any action – or even hints of action – on raising the Fed Funds Rate, which they have held at the lowest levels in history for the last year and a half. If the Fed raises the Fed Funds Rate too soon, it could slow economic activity and cause a “double dip” recession. However, if the Fed waits too long to raise the Fed Funds Rate, inflation could result. Remember, inflation is the arch enemy of Bonds and home loan rates…and signs of inflation could definitely cause home loan rates to worsen from their current low levels.

Even though there have been more concerns expressed by various Fed members about inflation and the long term effects of keeping the Fed Funds Rate too low for too long, the economic data recently reported (such as the weak Jobs Report and other reports showing inflation is tame at present) as well as the ongoing issues in Europe helped the “extended period” language to survive through another Fed meeting. This is an important issue to keep watch on.

Congress was just as busy as the Fed last week. On Thursday, the Financial Reform Bill was finally reconciled between the House and Senate. The final draft includes a Consumer Financial Protection Agency, which will have the authority to police banks for mortgage lending and credit-card abuses. The bill will move to the President for his signature once both houses of Congress approve the final version.

However, Congress did not pass the extension of the Home Buyer Tax Credit. Note: This extension was only going to be for people who were under contract by the initial April 30th deadline, extending their June 30th closing deadline to September 30th. The extension was part of the larger Jobs Bill, which included State aid and an extension of unemployment benefits for people out of work more than six months – and would have added $33B to the deficit. Meanwhile, the National Association of Realtors is saying that up to 30% of homes that went under contract by the April 30th deadline of the Homebuyer Tax Credit will likely not close by the current June 30th deadline.

There was other housing news last week, as both New Home Sales and Existing Home Sales were well below expectations. While a decline in sales was expected after people were racing to qualify for the April 30th Tax Credit deadline, the numbers are still a bit of a disappointment.

However – home prices remain affordable, and home loan rates are far from disappointing at the moment…last week they reached all time low levels! If you or anyone you know would like to learn more about this exceptional opportunity, please don’t hesitate to call or email. Or forward this newsletter on to anyone you think may benefit and I’d be happy to consult with them free of charge.

The FASTEST WAY TO TAKE THE FUN OUT OF ANY ROADTRIP IS TO COME HOME WITH A SPEEDING TICKET. CHECK OUT THE MORTGAGE MARKET GUIDE VIEW BELOW TO LEARN MORE ABOUT AVOIDING SPEED TRAPS.

Forecast for the Week

There will be plenty happening this week, ahead of the Independence Day holiday. The week may start with a bang, as Monday’s Personal Income and Personal Spending Reports arrive, giving us a look at the Core Personal Consumption Expenditure (PCE) Index as well…which just happens to be the Fed’s favorite gauge of inflation. Rest assured the Fed will be watching this report very closely. Any hint that inflation is heating up could definitely impact the Fed’s decision on rates and the “extended period” language at future Fed meetings.

Thursday brings another Initial Jobless Claims Report. Initial Jobless Claims came in at 457,000 last week and Continuing Claims at 4.55 Million. In addition, an additional 4.73M people are claiming EUC (Emergency Unemployment Compensation) benefits. The continuing high level of unemployment claims is disturbing, but things will improve. Remember, job losses come in the thousands as companies endure sweeping layoffs, but individuals are hired back one at a time. And remember – since the Jobs Bill has not been passed, more people will start to drop off extended unemployment benefits – and rejoin the workforce as formally unemployed.

And there could be some real fireworks on Friday, as the Labor Department releases the Jobs Report for June. Last month’s Jobs Report showed 431,000 jobs created in May. While on the surface this seems positive, the number was below expectations and also was primarily made up of temporary census workers…who will once again join the ranks of the unemployed when the 2010 Census has been completed. The Unemployment Rate did drop from 9.9% to 9.7%, but overall May’s Jobs Report was disappointing.

Remember: Weak economic news normally causes money to flow out of Stocks and into Bonds, helping Bonds and home loan rates improve, while strong economic news normally has the opposite result.

As you can see in the chart below, home loan rates hit record low levels last week. I’ll be watching closely to see if this trend continues.

Chart: Fannie Mae 4.0% Mortgage Bond (Friday, June 25, 2010)

The Mortgage Market Guide View…

A Safe and Ticket-Free Fourth!

In just a few short days, drivers across the country will hit the road to celebrate the Fourth of July with friends and family. If you’re heading down the road this coming weekend, remember that it’s never a good idea to speed – both for safety and financial reasons. After all, an accident or ticket can ruin your holiday weekend.

So make sure you have plenty of time and that you plan the most effective route. And…you may even want to take a minute to find out if there are any speed traps on your route that you should know about. Thanks to the website speedtrap.org, you can easily read about speed traps in communities across the country.

Simply visit speedtrap.org and click on the state and then the cities that you’ll be driving through. You can even add a speed trap you know about, so others can benefit from your knowledge.

Whether you’re traveling a few miles or a few hundred, have a safe and ticket-free Fourth of July!

——————————————————————————–

Economic Calendar for the Week of June 28 – July 02
Date ET Economic Report For Estimate Actual Prior Impact
Mon. June 28 08:30 Personal Income May 0.5% 0.4% Moderate
Mon. June 28 08:30 Personal Spending May 0.1% 0.0% Moderate
Mon. June 28 08:30 Personal Consumption Expenditures and Core PCE May 0.1% 0.1% HIGH
Mon. June 28 08:30 Personal Consumption Expenditures and Core PCE YOY NA 1.2% HIGH
Tue. June 29 10:00 Consumer Confidence Jun 62.0 63.3 Moderate
Wed. June 30 10:30 Crude Inventories 6/26 NA 2.02M Moderate
Wed. June 30 09:45 Chicago PMI Jun 59.5 59.7 HIGH
Wed. June 30 08:15 ADP National Employment Report Jun 61K 55K HIGH
Thu. July 01 08:30 Jobless Claims (Initial) 6/26 458K 457K Moderate
Thu. July 01 10:00 ISM Index Jun 59.0 59.7 HIGH
Thu. July 01 10:00 Pending Home Sales May -10.5% 6.0% Moderate
Fri. July 02 01:00 Non-farm Payrolls Jun -100K 431K HIGH
Fri. July 02 01:00 Unemployment Rate Jun 9.8% 9.7% HIGH
Fri. July 02 01:00 Hourly Earnings Jun 0.1% 0.3% HIGH
Fri. July 02 01:00 Average Work Week Jun 34.2 34.2 HIGH

The material contained in this newsletter is provided by a third party to real estate, financial services and other professionals only for their use and the use of their clients. The material provided is for informational and educational purposes only and should not be construed as investment and/or mortgage advice. Although the material is deemed to be accurate and reliable, we do not make any representations as to its accuracy or completeness and as a result, there is no guarantee it is not without errors.

As your trusted advisor, I am sending you the Manhattan Mortgage Company Mortgage Weekly Update because I am committed to keeping you updated on the economic events that impact interest rates and how they may affect you.

In the unlikely event that you no longer wish to receive these valuable market updates, please USE THIS LINK or email: ejarrett@manhattanmortgage.com

If you prefer to send your removal request by mail the address is:

Eve Robin Jarrett
Manhattan Mortgage
75 Main Street, 2nd Floor
East Hampton, NY 11937
The Manhattan Mortgage Company is the copyright owner or licensee of the content and/or information in this email, unless otherwise indicated. The Manhattan Mortgage Company does not grant to you a license to any content, features or materials in this email. You may not distribute, download, or save a copy of any of the content or screens except as otherwise provided in our Terms and Conditions of Membership, for any purpose.

Start your 2010 summer off right and head to one of your local beaches!  Dr. Stephen P. Leatherman, better known as Dr. Beach, has been scouring America’s beaches for the past 20 years compiling a list annually of the best ones to visit.  He tests for cleanliness, presence of lifeguards, sand softness/purity, smell, water quality, vista/views and so much more.

Of the top 10  best beaches in America for 2010,  East Hampton’s Main Beach and Southampton’s Coopers Beach take two of the ten positions.  Main Beach in East Hampton took the #5 spot for the top beaches in America to visit.   Coopers Beach in Southampton landed in the most coveted position on this list… #1 as THE BEST beach to visit for 2010!!

Congrats to East Hampton & Southampton for keeping our beaches safe, pristine & beautiful for locals and vistors to enjoy!! So grab your towels and chairs and head to your local beach.  You live in one of the most beautiful areas in the world so enjoy it!

Eve Robin Jarrett
MANAGING DIRECTOR
Senior Mortgage Consultant
Manhattan Mortgage
Office: 631-324-1555 x 25
Blackberry: 631-697-3366
e-Fax: 631-514-3654
Email: EJarrett@manhattanmortgage.com

For the week of May 24, 2010 // Vol. 8, Issue 21
In This Issue

Last Week in Review: Stock market teeters on the verge of becoming either a correction…or an “official” Bear market.

Forecast for the Week: A fully loaded plate of economic news is in store, including reads on housing and consumer attitudes.

View: How you can “insure” a smart and safe vacation this summer.

Last Week In Review

IT’S A SHOWDOWN…THE BULLS VS. THE BEARS. But we’re not talking about the Chicago Bulls who were recently knocked out of the NBA playoffs. We’re talking about the Bull Market that Stocks have enjoyed over the past months…that is now slipping back lower.

So why are these animal terms used to describe action in the Stock market anyways? The terms “Bull” and “Bear” are used because of the way those animals attack. Bulls attack using an upward thrusting motion with their horns, and Bears attack by moving their powerful claws in a downward motion. So an upward market is termed a Bull market, while a downward market is called a Bear market.

Last week, Stocks saw a sharp thrust downward, with prices down more than 10% from their peak. But that doesn’t mean it’s a Bear market just yet. Instead, the drop can be seen as a “correction”, if prices recover and resume their uptrend. A correction can be quite healthy, and help a Bull market sustain its strength. But here’s the trick: if the market drops 20% from its peak, it’s officially considered a Bear market. That means every Bear market was once potentially just a correction. And so the debate rages on. Is this a good time to buy – because you believe it’s a correction and prices will move much higher? Or is this a time to sell, before the correction turns into a Bear market? The answer should become clearer over the next few days, as the market’s direction takes hold.

Waiting in the wings are Bond prices and home loan rates… A Bear market could help Bond prices and home loan rates improve a bit more, as some of the money from Stock sales finds its way into the Bond market, including Mortgage Bonds. On the other hand, a correction back to a Bull market will be at the expense of some of the recent improvements that Bonds and home loan rates have enjoyed.

The reality is, Mortgage Bonds have looked a lot like a lottery winner recently, since Bond prices really should be much lower, and home loan rates much higher. But Mortgage Bonds are catching every lucky break – from the situation in Greece…to the declining Euro…to the correction in the Stock market. It’s all going in the favor of Mortgage Bonds…for now. But the Bond market’s good fortune may not last very long – so be sure to give me a call if I can help explain the current rate situation, and how it might benefit you.

———————–
BULL MARKETS THRUST UPWARD…WHILE BEAR MARKETS SWIPE DOWNWARD

Despite the sharp sell-off in Stocks, the markets did receive some good news last week on the inflation front. The Producer Price Index (PPI) was reported lower than expectations for the month of April, and the more closely followed Consumer Price Index (CPI) fell to report the first month-over-month decline since March of 2009. And when volatile food and energy prices were removed from the equation, the annual Core index came in at its lowest level since January 1966. Those numbers appear to show that inflation is subdued – and with oil prices significantly lower from where they were a few weeks ago, there will even be more downward pressure on headline inflation in the next report.

But the reality is that inflation will eventually begin to rear its ugly head – and once that happens, inflation can accelerate rather quickly. China recently reported a spike in inflation – and last week, the UK saw surprisingly higher inflation numbers being reported as well. So the Fed – and the markets – will have to continue to keep close tabs on inflation in the US.

WHILE YOU CAN’T CONTROL IF THE BULLS OR BEARS WILL WIN THE NEXT ROUND IN THE MARKETS…THERE ARE SOME THINGS YOU CAN CONTROL. FOR EXAMPLE, CHECK OUT THE MORTGAGE MARKET GUIDE VIEW BELOW FOR TIPS ON “INSURING” A SMART AND SAFE VACATION THIS COMING SUMMER.

Forecast for the Week

There’s a very full load of economic reports on tap this week, including fresh news on the health of the housing industry. After last week’s reports on Housing Starts and Building Permits in April, we’ll see reports on Existing Home Sales right away Monday morning and New Home Sales on Wednesday.

We’ll also discover how consumers feel about the economy with a report on Consumer Confidence on Tuesday, followed by the Consumer Sentiment Index on Friday. Both reports have risen lately, indicating that consumers feel better about the present and future economic conditions. The markets will be watching to see if that trend continues in this week’s reports.

The manufacturing sector of the economy will also be in the spotlight this week. Wednesday brings the Durable Goods Orders report, which measures new orders placed and is considered a leading indicator of manufacturing activity. That report will be followed by the Chicago PMI on Friday. This report surveys more than 200 Chicago purchasing managers about the manufacturing industry and is a good indicator of overall economic activity.

And if that wasn’t enough, we’ll also see more inflation news this week. First, the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) and GDP Chain Deflator for the first quarter will be released on Thursday. The Chain Deflator is a key inflation measure included in the GDP Report. And since inflation is the archenemy of Bonds and home loan rates, this report could be a market mover. Unlike the Consumer Price Index that was released last week, the Chain Deflator has the advantage of not being a fixed basket of goods and services, so changes in consumption patterns or the introduction of new goods and services will be reflected in the Chain Deflator. Then, one day after the Chain Deflator comes out, we’ll see the Personal Consumption Expenditures report on Friday. This report measures price changes in consumer goods and services, and is considered the Fed’s favorite gauge on inflation. After last week’s better-than-expected inflation news, the markets will definitely be watching these reports.

Rounding out the week, we’ll also see reports on Personal Income and Personal Spending this Friday.

But that’s not all…in addition to all those reports, the government will auction off $42 Billion of 2-years on Tuesday, $40 Billion of 5-years on Wednesday, and $31 Billion of 7-years on Thursday. These auctions may move the markets depending on how they are received.

Oh, not to mention that the news coming out of Europe may once again add to the market’s volatility here at home.

That’s a very full helping of potentially market moving activity. But you can count on me to be here and watching very closely. And remember: Weak economic news normally causes money to flow out of Stocks and into Bonds, helping Bonds and home loan rates improve, while strong economic news normally has the opposite result.

I reported earlier that March 2010 was a great month for Real Estate in North Fork Wine Country.

Now I am able to report that, in terms of contracts signed – which is the among the least delayed measures of RE activity- April 2010 continued very strong trending!

With 34 contracts signed, April 2010 was equal to records set in March of 2008 and  (data gathered from MLSLI) and August of 2007, when RE was considered exceptionally strong.

 Upscale sales were keeping up; but most activity showed at slightly lowered median price of $447,000 indicating first time home buyers took advantage of the tax incentives offered by State and Local governments; resulting in strong activity at the lower end in April at the end of the expiration dates of these programs to help the Real Estate Market recover. This did make a dent in availability of lower priced inventory on the North Fork and may signal rising prices.

Days on market (DOM) seems to hover around 200 days (a bit over 6 months): sellers need to realize that pricing for their homes may be the most important decision for a successful sale. The theory that you can start high and see what happens may cause sellers to miss the boat as most excitement takes place right when a new listing hits the market. Still, a word of caution for sellers: unemployment seems to remain high -regardless of optimistic consumer spending- along with elevated “hidden inventory” levels (Foreclosures and Short sales) which may again influence pricing – although our area has been very lucky with few distressed sales to date. So sellers: use this up-tick in the market to your advantage to sell your home – value priced.

Make sure negatives affecting appeal and cleanliness of the house are taken care of – great curb-appeal will bring quicker and better offers. Never be insulted by offers-many deals these days start out on the low side-but increased activity in the market will allow an experienced agent with the needed negotiating skills to bring buyers and sellers closer together and eventually close deals. So work with experienced brokers, especially now!

Call Town and Country at our North Fork Offices in Mattituck or Southold (next door to the North Fork Table -one of our region’s most fabulous restaurants) – and find out why Town and Country remains the fastest growing Real Estate company on the East End – and what doing so organically really means! Join our success story.

The month of March saw excellent sales in terms of contracts signed – the least delay sensitive measure of RE activity- compared to previous years: almost $22 1/2 Million in contracts were signed! Median Price rose almost to a record $800K.

MLS records show that the 28 transactions signed in March of 2010 was better than 2009, and even 2007, a tat less than 2008 one of the region’s best years in Real Estate. With 5 deals signed over $1 Million, that is a record for March on the North Fork.

Activity in the lower end – heavily stimulated before December 31, 2009 by the $8K tax credit, seemed to have slowed down in the first quarter, but higher priced homes were in brisk demand and contracts were sigend at very healthy levels. All great news.

STATISTICS StatsContracts

Take advantage of this market activity by calling Town and Country – call me at 631 948 0234 or email jbischoff@1townandcountry.com

There’s nothing more impressive than a powerful recovery!

Town & Country was the first to identify the bottom in the middle of last year, and promised a report in 2010 that would prove activity levels were returning.

It seems some of the markets hit hardest by the recession came back with a bang!

SHELTER ISLAND posted a whooping 1300% increase in Number of Home Sales from 1 to 14 and therefore an OUT OF THIS WORLD increase of 1442% in Total Home Sales Volume from $1.24M to $19M – which is twice the $9.5M posted for 1st quarter 2008! Oddly though the Median Home Sales Price dropped 15.4% from $1,240,000 to $1,049,500 – a trend we see in 4 markets thereby clearly conforming to the public’s demand for lower priced homes.

All 11 markets monitored by Town & Country saw BLACK or increases, in the Number of Home Sales. 10 of the 11 markets saw increases in the Total Home Sales Volume with the only exception being SAG HARBOR AREA (which includes Noyac and North Haven) with a 16% dip. And 6 of the same 11 markets experienced gains in Median Home Sales Price in this year to year 1st quarter report.

EAST HAMPTON VILLAGE Median Home Sales Price rose 137% from $1,242,500 to $2,950,000. While quite impressive, it still trails the $3.45M posted 1st quarter 2008, pre-recession.

SOUTHAMPTON VILLAGE Median Home Sales Price also experienced a grand increase of 103% from $825,000 to $1,675,000, 2009 to 2010 respectively. Still a far cry from 1st quarter 2008 when SOUTHAMPTON VILLAGE Median Home Sales Price was $2,775,000.

Studying All Hamptons Markets Combined we see just how impressive this recovery is. The Number of Home Sales rose 175% from 106 in 2009 to 292 in 2010 – which trumped the 287 posted back in 2008 before the crash! Further, the Total Home Sales Volume sky rocketed 251% from $153.6M in 2009 to $539M in 2010 and the Median Home Sales Price rose 51% from $730,000 in 2009 to $1.1M in 2010 – again trumping the $975,000 Median Home Sales Price 1st quarter 2008.

Clear across the board All Hamptons Markets Combined in every category and every price range displayed pure and powerful black.

If the time were ever more right to buy,,, I haven’t seen it!

To view more specifics on your particular locations and price ranges, visit out website 1TownandCountry.com and click “Reports”.

Tips on finding the perfect home for you!

Finding the right home can be a challenge.  The basic requirements, such as budget, number of bedrooms and baths, pool, tennis, etc put the wheels in motion.  But time is precious and the inventory is vast.  Identifying your specific needs is the key to maximizing your efforts.

Below is a checklist to help you identify your specific needs:

-       Does anyone living in the house or potentially visiting, require a first floor en-suite bedroom?  (i.e. elderly parents)

-       Does a housekeeper/nanny require a room, set apart from the family, with egress separate from the main family living areas?

-       Is there a family room where children can play, separate from adults, on rainy days?

-       Is the pool fenced and child-proof, either for your children, or visitors with children?

-       Do you want a location where a nanny can walk with children without being dependent on a car?

-       Are there separate outdoor areas, where someone can relax in peace, while others are enjoying conversation or play?

-       What are the core elements of flow that will maximize your pleasure.  Do you like open-flow living areas or more traditionally defined spaces?

The above is simply a start to help you to “fine-tune” your search. Take some time to think about your life style and the flow of people in the house.  Share as much as possible with your real estate professional. The more information he/she has, the easier it will be for them to find a home that is perfect for you!

Linda Statam is an Associate Broker with the Southampton office of Town and Country Real Estate of the East End.  You can contact her on her mobile @ (631) 725-3510 or at <lstatam@1townandcountry.com>

Eve Robin Jarrett
MANAGING DIRECTOR
Senior Mortgage Consultant
Manhattan Mortgage
Office: 631-324-1555 x 25
Blackberry: 631-697-3366
e-Fax: 631-514-3654
Email: EJarrett@manhattanmortgage.com

For the week of Mar 29, 2010 // Vol. 8, Issue 13
In This Issue

Last Week in Review: Learn why March is going out like a lion instead of a lamb. Also, the latest on housing numbers…and more!

Forecast for the Week: The Fed’s Mortgage Backed Security buying program ends Wednesday…what will this mean for home loan rates? Plus – big economic releases on jobs and inflation could be market movers.

The View: Just one month left to take advantage of the Homebuyer Tax Credit, which could mean up to $8,000 in your pocket. Don’t miss the details…or pass them on to someone who could benefit!

Last Week in Review

THEY SAY THAT MARCH COMES IN LIKE A LION AND GOES OUT LIKE A LAMB… But this year, the exact reverse is true when it comes to home loan rates – for quite a few reasons, including the end of the Federal Reserve acting as a large buyer of Mortgage Backed Securities (MBS). The “demand” created by their fifteen-month program has helped Bond prices stay high and home loan rates stay low.

But the Fed’s MBS purchase program will end on March 31st. The Fed has confirmed this several times, including during last week’s testimony by Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke. What’s more, the Fed will likely change sides entirely, and actually become a seller of MBS, since their balance sheet hangs heavy with MBS holdings. However, once the Fed begins selling MBS and puts more supply into the market – at the same time as entirely removing their past demand as buyers – this will pressure Bond prices lower and push home loan rates higher.

If you or someone you know would like to learn more about how you can take advantage of today’s low-rate environment, or the Homebuyer Tax Credit which is due to expire on April 30 (see the below View article for more details), just call or email me. Additionally, consider forwarding this issue to a friend, family member, neighbor or coworker who might benefit from the information.

———————–
Chart: Gross Domestic Product

In other news, the final reading on 2009’s Fourth Quarter Gross Domestic Product (GDP) roared in at 5.6%. While this was the best quarterly performance in six years, the economy shrank 2.4% during 2009, the worst single-year performance since 1946.

However, last week’s housing news arrived with a bit of a whimper. While Existing Home Sales for February were reported in line with expectations, the inventory number swelled to the highest inventory level since last August. In addition, New Home Sales fell slightly in February – the fourth straight monthly drop – to yet another record low. On the new construction front – this may be due in part to buyers feeling a new home purchase may not close in time to take advantage of the Homebuyers Tax Credit before it expires on April 30th…but the bottom line is that the real fix for housing will depend on a stronger labor market.

Weak auction results and the approaching end of the Fed’s MBS purchase program contributed to a volatile week in the markets, causing Bonds to fall below important technical levels. As a result, Bonds and home loan rates ended the week worse than where they began.

THERE’S JUST ONE MONTH LEFT BEFORE THE HOMEBUYERS TAX CREDIT EXPIRES ON APRIL 30! CHECK OUT THIS WEEK’S MORTGAGE MARKET GUIDE VIEW FOR IMPORTANT DETAILS.

Forecast for the Week

March will certainly roar out with a big week of news, beginning with Monday’s Personal Income and Personal Spending Reports. We’ll also get a look at the Core Personal Consumption Expenditure (PCE), which is the Fed’s favorite gauge of inflation. Rest assured the Fed will be watching this report closely!

The Labor Market will also be in the spotlight, first with Thursday’s Initial Jobless Claims Report. Last week’s Initial Jobless Claims were reported lower than expectations and at the lowest reading in 6 weeks. The numbers show modest improvements and are somewhat encouraging.

Hopefully, Friday’s official Jobs Report from the Labor Department for March will also be encouraging. Last month’s report showed that 36,000 jobs were lost in February, which was better than the 68,000+ job losses that were expected. However, while the Unemployment Rate remained stable at 9.7%, a deeper look beyond the headlines of the report showed what many consider to be the Real Unemployment Rate to be near 17%…which includes discouraged workers who are no longer seeking employment, as well as “underemployed” folks who have taken part time or low paying jobs, just to be bringing some money in the door. The bottom line is that real improvement is needed in the labor market for our economy to continue to recover.

Remember: Weak economic news normally causes money to flow out of Stocks and into Bonds, helping Bonds and home loan rates improve, while strong economic news normally has the opposite result. And with the Fed MBS buying program ending…there will likely be more volatility for home loan rates in store.